DesertWeather.com

184
FXUS66 KSGX 101935
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1135 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Above average conditions will continue through Wednesday. Cooler
conditions with increased cloud coverage is expected for Thursday
through early next week. Periods of showers and increased winds are
expected starting Friday through next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Highs today are expected to be within a few degrees of yesterday.
Weak ridging aloft and weak offshore flow will continue to keep
highs above average. Along the coast, daytime highs are expected to
run 10 to 15 degrees above average through Wednesday, with highs 5
to 10 degrees above average elsewhere. Thursday, highs will be up to
5 degrees cooler than Wednesday but will still be 5 to 10 degrees
above average.

Thursday, an upper level low will dig south and east and is expected
to pass through Northern Baja by early Friday. This will bring
periods of mostly light showers to the coastal basin Friday into
Saturday. There will be a modest increase in precipitable water,
with some guidance showing a bump up in IVT on Friday. The ECMWF EPS
has a 30% chance of IVT exceeding 250 kg/m/s (equates to a weak
atmospheric river), while the GEFS has closer to a 60% chance. There
is still quite a bit of spread in rainfall amounts, especially for
areas north of San Diego County with some members still running
completely dry. Solutions that usher more IVT into Southern
California will lead to higher rainfall amounts across the area.
Compared to yesterday, the upper end of potential rainfall totals
has come down to under an inch. The NBM chances of exceeding 0.50"
over 48 hours from Friday morning to early Sunday is 15-35%
across the coastal basin.

Periods of showers are expected through the weekend into early next
week as troughs line up to periodically pass across the US West
Coast. A lot of the details will become clearer as the timing and
track of each trough passage becomes clearer. After the
Friday/Saturday timeframe, there may be periods of isolated light
showers Sunday, but ensemble guidance is honing in on Monday/Tuesday
for our next chance at widespread rainfall.

Winds are expected to increase over the mountains and deserts with
each trough passage. Expect winds to increase as early as late
Thursday and continue into Saturday morning. Peak gusts of 35 to
45 mph, with gusts up to 55 mph through wind prone passes. Winds
are expected to increase again early next week with the next
trough passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
101830Z...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions through early Wed.
Light E/NE winds west of mountain passes and foothill slopes.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday. Winds
increase late Friday and seas build Saturday, which could lead to
hazardous boating conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Surf of 3-7 feet will lead to a high rip current risk and hazardous
swimming conditions today, particularly in San Diego County. A Beach
Hazards Statement in effect for these beaches through this evening
contains the details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for San
     Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST today for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink