DesertWeather.com

337
FXUS66 KSGX 300456
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
856 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will continue into Saturday with temperatures
well above average. Locally gusty offshore winds will continue
through this period in the mountains and foothills as well.
Slightly cooler weather can be expected by Sunday and Monday as a
weak area of low pressure moves closer to the region. High
pressure regains control for the middle and end of next week,
bringing more warm weather with increased Santa Ana winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

This evening...except for a few wisps of high clouds, skies are
clear. Surface pressure gradients are still offshore with -9.6 mb
SAN-TPH and -4.6 mb SAN-DAG. In the last hour, some wind-prone
locations are reporting northeast to east winds gusting 25-35 mph
and at least one location reported a gust of 44 mph. Conditions
remain very dry and wind-sheltered areas in the inland valleys could
once again see overnight low temps in the 30s.

From previous discussion...
High pressure to our southwest over the Pacific is strengthening.
This weather system will move northward, turning upper level
winds eastward. This will favor greater wind speeds across
mountains/passes of San Diego and Riverside Counties. Strongest
winds will occur around sunset Friday evening, continuing a bit
weaker Friday night through Saturday with wind gusts 25-45 MPH.

The bigger story will be the heat. The area of high pressure will
build and expand over the Desert Southwest with 850 mb
temperatures peaking near 15C. High temperatures across SoCal
will locally go over 15 degrees above average. Light offshore
flow will contribute to the highest temperatures in the valleys
west of the mountains. Friday and Saturday will see similar
temperatures with highs well into the 80s across the Coachella
Valley as well as most valleys west of the mountains. The air
mass over the region will be warmest by Saturday, where there is
around a 50-50 chance of highs over 85 degrees, from northern
Orange County, the western Inland Empire, and foothills of San
Diego County (Ontario, Riverside, Anaheim, Poway, El Cajon). It
would be quite the interesting day...making our area the warmest
spot in all 50 states. Some record high temperatures for the days
on Friday and Saturday are possible across some of our cities,
including Lake Elsinore, Escondido, and Vista.

A weak low will form to the south, bringing increasing onshore flow
and subtle cooling to the area by Sunday and Monday, though
temperatures will still be well above normal for early February,
with temperatures remaining near 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
This "reprieve" will not last long though, as the ridge from this
weekend becomes reinvigorated and anomalously strong as it parks
itself over the western part of the country by the middle and end
of next week. You know what that means...no rain in sight with
more warm weather. NBM forecast points to highs returning into the
80s across inland valleys with highs in the 60s/70s from the
beaches into the high desert and foothill regions. Something we
will also be watching is going to be the Santa Ana winds. As the
area of high pressure moves northward into the Great Basin and
Pacific Northwest, an area of low pressure will form to our south.
The movement of these systems will act to funnel desert air into
Southern California, increasing offshore flow by next Wednesday
and Thursday. Model ensemble guidance points to a potential
elevated to moderate Santa Ana wind event by this time, where
highest winds would be over mountains/passes of San Diego and
Riverside Counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
300400Z...VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Expect
clear skies with breezy northeasterly winds continuing in the
foothills and below mountain passes into adjacent valleys. Gusts up
to 25-35 kts will be possible through Friday night, slowly
decreasing into Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Elevated surf will combine with the high tide Friday morning,
increasing the risk of strong rip currents and minor tidal overflow.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG/APR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Villafane