DesertWeather.com

123
FXUS66 KSGX 211949
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1249 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler conditions with periods of rain through early Friday morning.
There are chances of thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday
morning. Warmer and drier for the weekend with offshore flow on
Saturday. The offshore flow weakens for Sunday into early next week.
Tides increase over the weekend, remaining elevated through much of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 12 PM the main rainfall band was west of Los Angeles County. Rain
is expected to continue to move south and east, reaching Orange
County late this afternoon and San Diego County early this evening.
Two main bands of precipitation are expected with the first one at
the onset of precipitation and the next early Thursday morning.
Instability will increase overnight as colder air aloft moves across
record warm coastal waters for this time in October, around 7
degrees warmer than the long-term average. While coverage of
precipitation may be less overnight, there is greater potential for
brief higher-intensity rainfall from isolated thunderstorms and
stronger showers.

Additional showers will continue on Thursday along with a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. The greater coverage
is expected for Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties from
the coast to the mountains. The upper level flow will turn
northwesterly Thursday evening, with scattered showers continuing
for San Diego County into Friday morning, with drier conditions
further north.

Through Thursday night for Orange and southwestern San Bernardino
Counties, rainfall is expected to range from 0.50-0.75 inch near the
coast to 1 to 1.5 inches for the San Bernardino County mountains.
For San Diego County, rainfall will decrease from north to south
with 0.75 to locally 1 inch over northwestern San Diego County to
0.25 to 0.50 inch across far southern San Diego County. For the most
part, rainfall rates will peak at 0.20-30 inches per hour, with the
potential for rates 0.45-0.70 inches where thunderstorms develop.

High temperatures will run 5 degrees below average along the coast
Thursday and 10 to 20 degrees below average inland. Temperatures
will gradually warm Friday onward. For next Monday, high
temperatures for coastal areas will be 5 to locally 10 degrees above
average with the mountains and deserts a few to around 5 degrees
below average. Additionally, the flow will turn offshore on
Saturday. Gusty northeast to east winds will develop in and below
mountain passes and canyons as well as the Inland Empire corridor
between the Cajon Pass and the Santa Ana Mountains. The offshore
flow weakens for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
211900Z...SCT-BKN cumulus cloud layers around 1-8 kft feet are
covering most of the region. The first band of +SHRA/RA with a few
embedded TSRA are expected to reach northern Orange County around 20-
21z, reaching SD County by 00z, and passing through the region from
west to east into the mountains through around 08z. Cigs will drop
to 2500-3500 feet MSL and vis 3-6SM during this band`s passage. A
few embedded +SHRA/TSRA could produce brief and local IFR conditions
and locally gusty winds. Winds shift from south to southwest and
cigs lift to about 3000 feet MSL. SCT +SHRA/SHRA/TSRA are expected
to continue through the coastal basin through the TAF period,
bringing intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions and briefly gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
A storm system is moving through the outer waters, bringing
widespread light to moderate rain. Southerly winds this afternoon
will shift to southwest tonight, then westerly Thursday, with
occasional wind gusts exceeding 20 knots. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible within the first round of rain Thereafter, more rounds
of showers with a 10-20% chance for a few thunderstorms at times
through Friday. No hazardous marine conditions are expected Friday
night through Sunday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...Westerink